Hello, this is Coinscript.

In today’s episode:

• Bitcoin’s Historically Most Reliable Price Predictor

• Did Bitcoin just say "Hold my Beer"? 🍺

Bitcoin's Historically Most Reliable Price Predictor

So, what is the best indicator of Bitcoin’s price?

What is the best indicator that shows us a potential bull run or bear market coming up?

PRO TIP: It’s not halving!

It’s a thing called Global M2 Money Supply or Global Liquidity.

M2 is basically all the money floating around in the system. We’re talking:

• Physical cash in circulation

• Bank account balances

• Retail money market mutual funds

More M2 = more capital available to flow into Bitcoin. Simple as that.

Here’s the best part:

Bitcoin tends to follow M2’s moves with about a 70-day delay.

Don’t believe us?

Here’s a chart showing Bitcoin’s price in comparison to changes in global liquidity from 2013 to 2024:

So, What is the Current Situation?

Let’s just say that global liquidity isn’t exactly in growth mode right now:

So, if the historical correlation holds any truth, Bitcoin might be in for a bit of a dip in the coming months.

But, before you start panic-selling, here’s some perspective.

If 2024/2025 plays out anything like the 2016/2017 bull run, this potential dip could be just a mid-dance breather.

If this happens, what could get Bitcoin back on its feet?

Two magic words: MONEY PRINTING.

The U.S. government took a bunch of COVID-era loans which are coming due in the second half of 2025.

And their most likely game plan is?

1. Print a substantial amount of new money

2. Use it to pay off existing loans

3. Lower interest rates

4. Take out new loans at these lower rates

So, if you’re sitting there thinking: “Hold up… they’re going to devalue my savings and slash my interest earnings just to fix their own financial mishaps?”

Congratulations! You’ve just discovered why we need hard assets like Bitcoin. Consider this your first lesson in “Why Bitcoin Exists 101”.

Bitcoin Just Had a "Hold My Beer" Moment with the CPI Numbers 🚀

Okay, so you know how everyone was getting super nervous about today's inflation numbers? Well, Bitcoin just looked at all that anxiety and said "Watch this."

The Numbers That Started It All

So here's what dropped from the U.S. Labor Department (drum roll, please):

• CPI came in at +2.9% year-over-year (exactly what everyone expected)

• Core CPI hit +3.2% (actually better than the +3.3% prediction)

Wait, what is CPI again?

CPI (Consumer Price Index) is like a shopping receipt for the entire country - it measures how much prices are changing for everyday stuff like food, housing, and gas.

When people talk about inflation, they're usually talking about how much the CPI has gone up.

And what did Bitcoin do? It basically pulled a "challenge accepted" move and shot straight past $98.5k.

Not bad for a Wednesday, right?

The Plot Twist Nobody Saw Coming

Here's where it gets interesting. You'd think that the biggest inflation jump in eight months would have everyone running for the hills, right? WRONG.

Bitcoin was just chilling at $97,000 before the announcement, probably scrolling through its phone, when the news hit.

Then BAM! 🚀 

Straight up to $98,500 faster than you can say "Ready, Steady, GO!"

The Real MVP Move

But wait, it gets better. Remember Monday when Bitcoin was hanging out at $89,200?

Bleehh

Well, do the math… At the time of writing, Bitcoin had gained over $10,000 in just a couple of days!

It's like Bitcoin saw all those worried traders and was like: "Oh, you thought I was going down? That's cute. Hold my wallet."

What's Actually Going On Here?

Let's break this down in plain English:

• Everyone was freaking out about inflation

• The numbers came in... and they weren't that scary

• Bitcoin decided to party

• All the major trading pairs joined in (because FOMO is universal, folks)

The Plot Thickens...

Here's the funny part - all those traders who panic-sold earlier this week? They might have just learned a classic crypto lesson: Sometimes the market zigs when you expect it to zag.

Think about it:

• BTC/USD: Up 2.78% (showing off)

• BTC/GBP: Up 2.49% (keeping up with the Jones')

• BTC/EUR: Up 2.72% (not to be left out)

Meme of the Day 🤣

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.